Mapping the Political Terrain: Centre for African Progress (CAP) Unveils Kisii County Political Survey
KISII, Kenya, Mar 17 – Kisii County has solidified its position as a major electoral battleground with a total of 637,010 registered voters officially listed on the IEBC roll this voting bloc is spread across nine key constituencies, with Bobasi leading the pack at 106,060 voters, followed closely by Nyaribari Chache with 88,553.
The demographic spread continues through South Mugirango 79,004, Nyaribari Masaba 68,593, and Kitutu Chache South (66,908). Meanwhile, the constituencies of Bonchari 64,630, Kitutu Chache North 56,970 and Bomachoge Borabu 56,991 maintain a steady middle ground, leaving Bomachoge Chache as the final piece of the puzzle with 49,301 voters.
According to Centre for African Progress (CAP) survey findings the county is home to approximately 2.45 million people with Females about 58% of the total population 67% of the population is below 45 years.
Other than Abagusii, Kisii County is home to a small number of Luos, Somalis, Kurias, Nubians, Asians and a sizeable Asians, Nubians and Kikuyus have intermarried with locals resulting in assimilation.
The first governor was James Ongwae who took over in 2013 got re-elected for a second term in 2017 through the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), Clan politics plays a major role in Kisii County voting patterns.
The Education levels of the Respondents: 15% primary, 35% secondary, 49% college and 1% no education primary 15%, Secondary 35% and College 49%.
Age of the respondents18-32 – 840 (28%), 33-43- 840 (28%44 -53 – 720 (24%), 54+ -600 (20%).
The aim of the study was to find the prevailing political climate as we head to 2027 after recent activities by both sides of the political divide, Sample size used was 3,000 registered voters.
Subsequently, Number of questionnaires apportioned to each constituency was calculated using the registered voters for example, Bobasi with 106,060 registered voters got 500 questionnaires with the same approach applied down to the ward level, the margin of error is +/- 1.93 the study was carried out between the 2nd and 9th March 2026.
Most Important Issue in the CountyIssue Score Percentage; Economy (1,107) 36.9% Infrastructure (669) 22.3%, Unemployment (405) 13.5% Poor Leadership (363) 12.1%, Education (210) 7% Congestion (126) 4.2% and Insecurity (120) 4% Total (3000) 100%
Additionally, Questionnaires per Constituency Constituency was based on registered voters percentage of county voters with Number of Questionnaires; Bobasi 106,060 16.65% (500)
Nyaribari Chache 88,553 13.9% (417)
South Mugirango 79,004 12.4% (372)
Nyaribari Masaba 68,593 10.77% (323)
Kitutu Chache South 66,908 10.5% (315)
Bonchari 64,630 10.15% (304)
Kitutu Chache North 56,970 8.94% (268)
Bomachoge Borabu 56,991 8.95% (269)
Bomachoge Chache 49,301 7.74% (232)
Total 637,010 100% (3000).
A new opinion poll involving 3,000 respondents has shifted the spotlight on the Kisii County political landscape, placing Ezekiel Machogu in a commanding lead with 42% The survey shows the incumbent Governor Simba Arati, trailing in second place with 29.8%, while Dr. Enock Ondari secures 12.4%.
Further down the ladder, Lumumba Nyaberi garnered 2%, with other candidates combined accounting for a marginal 1.2%.
Notably, the race remains far from settled, as 12.6% identified as undecided, representing a crucial swing vote that could determine the final outcome as the political season heats up.
Political Party Preference in Kisii County Since independence, Gusiiland has never been homogenous as far as political party affiliation is concerned.
Jubilee, ODM and Ford Kenya are some of the parties that members of the community identified with during the reign of President Uhuru Kenyatta, In the Ruto era there is UDA, ODM, UPA, and DCP.
In the shifting political landscape of Kisii County, recent data reveals a competitive multi-party environment where the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) has surged to the forefront, commanding 21% of the political score.
Following closely in this power struggle is the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) at 20%, signaling a strong desire for alternative leadership among the electorate.
Traditional heavyweights continue to hold significant ground, with the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) securing 16% and the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) maintaining a firm foothold at 15%.
As the Jubilee Party holds steady at 11% and Ford Kenya trails with 6%, the remaining 11% distributed among smaller parties suggests that the region remains a vital, undecided battleground ahead of the 2027 polls.
